What are the chances that Republican will take over the Senate this fall?

Analysts, strategists and pollsters suggest that dissatisfaction among the public, President Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy, a slow economy and retirement of some important Democratic senators has made it a jagged year for Democrats. Out of 35 Senate seats, 21 are under the stronghold of the Democrats and 14 with Republicans. Republicans need to bag six seats to win the Senate. Reasons why Republicans have a better chance of winning the Senate this fall are:

  • Republicans have 14 seats to defend as opposed to 21 Democrat seats.
  • Retirement of Democratic senators from three conservative states, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, can prove favorable to the Republicans. Obama’s popularity in West Virginia and South Dakota are quite poor and with the retirement of Jay Rockefeller and Tim Johnson of respective states, Republican candidates are the favorites. Democrat John Welsh from Montana is running behind Republican Steve Daines. Democrats cannot seem to find stronger candidates in these places.
  • Democratic Senators from Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina might be targeted. The Republicans can select the victories from these states. Republicans are likely to get more votes based on foreign policy issue.
  • Democrats have some open seats in red states that are at risk. Polls suggest that Republicans have become competitive in politically separated states like Michigan and Colorado, where chances of winning was less a year ago. Republicans are going by Senator Chuck Schumer’s playbook, who helped Democrats in their win, by exploring territories that they never tried in a big way. The Republican Party has recruited less controversial candidates in most of the states.
  • Looking at the current economic situation, it might prove to be in favor of the Republicans. They believe that taxes should not be increased and wages should be set by the free market.
  • Midterms are more likely to favor the Republicans as it tends to tilt towards older and whiter. Democrats defend states that have rural influence than urban as Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, West Virginia.

Due to some democrats not voting in midterm elections, more states are leaning towards Republican than Democrats. According to the average senate polls by Poll Headlines, there is 52 percent chance for Republicans to take over the senate. If they repeat their 2010 win, they can grab the required seats easily this fall.

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